Executive Summary

Bitcoin has gone through four bull market cycles, each driven by a distinct narrative. The first Bitcoin bull market in 2011 was propelled by Bitcoin’s emergence as a new payment mechanism. The second bull market was driven by China, with Bitcoin gaining recognition as an alternative form of money. The third cycle was marked by the rise of initial coin offerings (ICOs) as a novel means to establish and fund companies. The fourth cycle was characterised by the DeFi summer, followed by the NFT minting craze. 

The fifth Bitcoin bull market appears to be primarily driven by the expectations of institutional adoption. Bitcoin's characteristics, which were traditionally associated with assets like Gold and other safe-haven investments such as Treasury bonds, have led institutions to consider Bitcoin for diversifying their asset allocation. It is not a coincidence that Bitcoin is surging at a time when the United States' debt-to-GDP ratio is reaching unsustainable levels.

This bull market officially commenced onJ une 22, 2023, when Bitcoin reached a new one-year high for the first time in a year. Historically, when this signal was triggered, Bitcoin has delivered, on average, returns of +310%. Based on this signal, we estimated that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by December 2024. The optimal entry point to buy Bitcoin was ideally 14-16 months before the next halving event. This is why the end of October 2022 was the perfect entry time, as our report suggested when Bitcoin was trading at just $17,000. With momentum gaining steam, further gains are anticipated.